Process 4 “No Exit” Computer Modeling

延续着上文中的构思,这个房间应该是又很多很多的三角形所构成,这个草图很好的表达了我对最终模型的预期。

这间房间有着两个出口,一个在房间的侧面,通向另一个房间。而另一个房间正是这个房间本身。也就是说,从侧门出去,又重新回到了房间内。上面的那个天窗一般的开口就是连接侧面出口的通路。当你从侧面的出口出去之后,就又从上面的门回到了房间内。这个结构反映了我对”No Exit”这个概念本身的思考,即没有出口就同时代表着没有入口。如果你能进到房间,也就说明你可以原路返回到出口,即出口就是入口。所以说没有出口是一个悖论,因为你得先进入房间,才能说我出不去了。

那么一个出口和入口的悖论就被描绘出来了:当你出去的时候,你又进来了,出这个行为在执行的同时变成了进入房间,所以你永远也不可能离开这个房间,也就实现了正真意义上的:“No Exit”。

那么我下一步的目标就是重现这个房间。首先我先尝试了如何用三角形来铸构这个空间的一面墙壁。这一次的尝试可以说是非常的潦草和迅速,我简单了在纸板上裁下了合适大小的三角形,并没有拘泥于尺寸的精确度。但是说起来容易,其实操作起来并没有想象中的那么容易:

通过这一次的试验我得出了结论:整个模型的最基本单位就是三角形。想要搭建出一个精准的模型,就只有两个要求:“计算和裁剪出精确大小的三角形”,以及“以计算好的方式将三角形拼接,并且粘合两个三角形的时候要小心,不能犯错或者让胶水流出来。”

所以我就萌生了一个大胆的想法,在软件当中建造出模型出来,这样建模软件中的模型就是100%准确的了。并且建模软件当中每个三角形的数据都是可查阅,已知的。所以再根据虚拟模型的数据来搭建现实当中的模型,就可以得到一个高质量的模型。

我很快找到了建筑老师学习Rhino,在电脑中建造我的模型。说实话学习软件花了我不少的时间。以下是一些过程:

Le Corbusier 最有名气的建筑- Villa Savoye 萨伏伊别墅 的平面设计图 (二层)
二层的完成图

在这之后我有花了很多时间来研究如何建造三角形的结构,直到我学成归来:

这是一小段的试验,基本上和用事物搭建的一段墙壁如出一辙

之后我就在这一小段的墙壁上继续展开-我的目标是一个封闭的房间,所以整个墙壁应该是环绕成一个穹顶。

建好了一圈墙壁之后,在正面留出了侧门

最终的完成图长这个样子:

光线追踪渲染(虽然我没耐心等它渲染完)

得到了成品之后,下一步就是在现实中还原这个模型了:

在纸上先测量出每个三角形的大小尺寸
作图时的延时摄影
裁剪时的延时摄影(不要在意最后手机倒了:P)

总的来说这个项目最终的模型是个大工程,因为模型由很多很多小三角形构成,而且我采购的版面材料特别难切割,目前看来还需要更多的时间来裁剪和建造模型,就留到2021开春吧!

Process 3 “No Exit” Constructing with Triangle

“全景监狱全称为“中央监控式全景监狱”,由法国哲学家米歇尔·福柯提出,是由英国哲学家边沁提出的“圆形监狱”设想而来的。圆形监狱描述了一种环形建筑空间,其四周被分成多个囚室,中间是一座瞭望塔,监视者站在塔上即可监视囚犯。在传统社会控制方式下,囚犯被监禁在不同的牢房中,监视着则在牢房的最顶端位置对不同牢房的囚犯进行监视,监视者的视线可以到达每一间牢房,但囚犯却看不到监视人,因囚犯都被关在不同的牢房中,彼此缺乏信息的沟通。所以,监视人在不在场,囚犯们心中都认为其在场,便会不自觉地接受外在的控制并约束自己的行为。在全景监狱中,观看是一种权力,被观看的人只能选择服从管制,外部的规则便渐渐变成自律性质的约束” (北大新传猫哥)

边沁于1785年提出了他对一种环形监狱的设想,这样的由特殊设计打造的圆形监狱可以让监管者从圆心的位置四顾整个监狱的空间,方便于监管者的管理和监督

边沁(Bentham)的监狱设计图

而福柯则在他的著作《规则与惩罚》当中受到边沁的启发。边沁设计这样一个监狱的目的是出自实用性质的,补仅对监狱本身补充了很多描述,并且以建筑的功能性出发设想了这样的一个结构。而福柯则是运用了这个意象来表述自己对规则这项技术的运用。“如果我们去问米歇尔·福柯,应不应该把人贩子活活扔到油锅里面炸,他的回答八成会是「 不应该」”(盐选推荐)福柯在书中描述的对工具和建筑的利用,以及他对人道主义观点的描述,都指向了通过改进惩罚的手段,从罪犯的精神层面施压,来达到改造罪犯的思想的目的。

福柯在书中描述的一切都是带有着福柯自己的思考的,我诚然不敢明喻自己对《规则与惩罚》的见解,但是这个建筑的意象让我的项目打开了一道新的门,尤其是有着大眼睛的那张画。

在一个“全景监狱”当中,中央的眼睛(意为当权者,权力的所有者)能够从中心看到所有的罪犯,而罪犯则因为角度的原因看不见中央的眼睛,而且罪犯无法互相交谈。这个眼睛的寓意和我的设想如此的相似。在No Exit的房间当中,三个被囚禁在空间里的人时刻必须看到对方,他们必须被观察着。他们即是观察者,也是被惩罚的人。他们是互相的惩罚者。

而从几何意义上来解读这个所谓的”中央监控“式的监狱,即使:”从圆心出发画出的半径到圆弧永远相等。“这是圆形所具有的特性。所以我站在圆中心观察圆的周围就是最佳的位置。

这个圆环监狱启发我的点在于,我的项目也是同样的道理,他们有着共同的出发和性质。

草图细节

三个人如果在一个房间当中,形成一个平衡的关系,那么这个房间一定是三角形的。每个人占据一个角落,从三角形的一个端点到达另外两个也是相等的(等边三角形)。

三角形这个元素就被我解构出来了

但是这个房间不单单只是一个三角形,我一开始对这个空间的预期是能够对房间内的存在者产生压迫感,这个房间即是地狱。所以回到一开始我提取出的元素:一个倾斜的墙壁,一个拱顶。

我希望能够使用三角形作为最基本的结构材料,搭建这样的一个房间,同时满足上述的要求,那么我的草稿大概长这样:

设计草稿:箭头指向的是两个开口,开口通向两个和这个空间一模一样的两个空间,他们相连接,并且从始至终都只是一个空间:“一个空间循环”

在这个终稿出来之前我还做过很多的尝试,对三角形的不同组合,尝试去理解如何将它们有序的连接在一起,拼出一个无序的表面,形成一个有压迫感的空间。

Work Cited:

盐选推荐,“如何评价米歇尔·福柯著作《规训与惩罚》?”,知乎,2019/04/26,(8 条消息) 如何评价米歇尔·福柯著作《规训与惩罚》? – 知乎 (zhihu.com)

北大新传猫哥,“北大猫哥新传考研 | 福柯的全景敞视监狱机制,到底是一个什么东西?”,知乎,2020/09/02,北大猫哥新传考研 | 福柯的全景敞视监狱机制,到底是一个什么东西? – 知乎 (zhihu.com)

Vision Paradox, not Optical Illusion

Optical illusion是由我的建筑导师一开始介绍给我的。并不算是有任何的机缘巧合。这一点虽然看起来不是一个创作的合理流程,但是Optical illusion在后来给我带来的启发确实很有帮助。

M. C. Esher是我在所有Optical illusion中最喜欢的一个创作者,他的画产生令人迷惑的空间本质上和其他的Optical illusion还不太一样,我觉得Esher对空间的理解是超乎常人的,而且他的思辨能力也不同寻常。

我尝试去用自己的画笔和脑子来理解这样一个不可能的结构是如何存在于纸面之上的

当我完全能够以不同的方式和角度画出这样的图形之后,一张更大的画面就出现了:

我尝试用更多的线条来构造一个更加复杂的场景

不仅仅是三角形的是错觉带给我很大的启发,Escher的其他作品也非常有意思.

在这个空间中,重力仿佛在不断的变换,楼梯和墙壁有时是向上,有时候又是向下
这张图片常常被人们用来作为悖论的视觉隐喻,但实际上这里暗藏着Optical illusion和Paradox的联系,也正是我对Optical illusion产生自己的认知的地方。
Escher看上去对空间的变化非常感兴趣,不论是倒转的阶梯,还是不可能的图形,他们本质上都是空间的变化。我很喜欢这样一张球面反射的图片。后来我对着金属烧水壶的外壳中自己的印象还画了张速写。

当我看了这么多Escher的Optical illusion之后,对比其他平面上的Optical illusion,我真的可以明显感觉出他们的不同之处。

中间橘色的圆心会看起来比另一个小一些
实际上是笔直的线却看起来是斜着的

我把以上的这两张归类为视觉-错觉,因为他们真的是我们大脑产生的错误判断,illusion在字典中的定义是:(1) a false idea or belief, (2) something that seems to exist but in fact does not, or seems to be something that is not.

错觉是一种错误的信念,错误的认知,是不存在于现实空间当中的。但是如果你仔细会看Escher的不可能空间:

其实你不难发现,如果我们单独看曲折的水渠,忽略那邻人迷惑的高度差,每个曲折和形状都是正常的,然后我们再把目光放到竖立的四根柱子上,好像也没有什么问题。但是如果我们退回正常的视角,画面又开始迷惑了起来。这是因为画面中的高度差和平面的河渠是在现实中不可能存在的。当我们单独处理两者时,河渠和柱子没有产生关联,自然也就不会邻人迷惑了。但是如果将两者放在一块,本质上是冲突的空间就让我们产生了困惑。

我认为,这样的图像其实并不是视觉错觉,因为其中没有让你产生任何虚假的信念或者大脑产生错误的判断,每个判断我们都是理智的做出的。然而让我们困惑的其实是两个冲突的信息。这其实是一个-“视觉悖论” (Vision Paradox)

悖论是表面上同一命题或推理中隐含着两个对立的结论,而这两个结论都能自圆其说。悖论的抽象公式就是:如果事件A发生,则推导出非A,非A发生则推导出A -摘自百度百科

从悖论的定义出发来理解我们所看到的图像,两个对立的结论分别代表着水渠和柱子,两个空间在图像中都能自圆其说。但是同时两者又是水火而不相容的-他们互相证明对方的错误性,从而达到了悖论的目的,一个难以被理解的抽象概念,混淆视听。

我当时在想到了这个概念时非常兴奋地写下了自己的见解,可见有很多错字,我也就懒得改了

Process 1 “No Exit” – A spatial restore project

这是一些来自生活中采样得到的灵感来源,他们和理论上的逻辑可能并没有非常相呈的地方,我也没有在看到这些建筑之前抱有任何的期待。但是回想起来的时候,他们提供了很多感受上的重合,尤其是空间语言上的,这些建筑部分和我想做的项目说的是同一种语言。

这里是三里屯Soho,一个很有意思的商业中心,从很远的地方你就可以看到太古里那栋五颜六色的建筑,而里面的一层和二层是优衣库的空间,三楼和四楼是餐厅和露台。

因为我实在是没有拍建筑正面的照片,就从网上找了一张

Deconstruction

这算是我比较喜欢做的事情,我很喜欢看到建筑师的草稿上不仅仅有画面,还有他们的标注和解读。当尝试去用绘画和图像来记录事物的时候,更重要的本质是去理解空间,尝试用自己的语言来理解眼前呈现的现象,在心理学中,这被称为”Accomodation”。

而绘画能做的事情远比拍照可以做的更多,比画的像更重要的是你如何在记录的时候对建筑产生理解。太古里的优衣库楼就被我理解为一个方块-削去了底面的两个角,并且形成了一个向下的切面。这个切面产生的建筑语言启发了我。

当人站在切面的下方的时候,削去的斜面更加容易产生巨大的错觉,这是因为向前延展的斜面在视野中会产生更大的形体,而建筑的底面却显得更小了。这就是斜面产生的建筑语言

而随着”Enormous”而来的是压迫的感觉,建筑厚重的形体现在悬浮在你的头顶之上,巨大的重量带来的就是严肃的压迫感。这一点真好是我要寻找的感觉-来自地狱的压迫感。

接下来我和我的建筑老师一起做了一个脑暴,列出了和NO EXIT所有相关的元素,其中包括了:

  1. No Exit的场景是发生在地狱当中的,那么地狱的语言有什么?
  2. No Exit这本书是怎么描绘了这个空间的?
    1. 青铜雕像
    2. 沙发
    3. 没有窗户和镜子
    4. 一个有时候不会响的门铃
    5. Paper Knife
    6. 两个女人和一个男人
  3. 三个人在书中形成了一个制衡的关系

然后还有几个点留给我去了解,包括两个电影和Plato’s Cave(这个其实还挺有意思的)

脑暴产生了很多点,可以供我去延展研究,但是我并没有采取其中大多数的点子,相反,我只对1和3有着一些后续的运用。这一次脑暴之后我就跳转到了Research和试验上了。

Introduce to “No Exit” – A spatial restore project

“No exit” is the book we’ve studied on EN3001 class couple weeks ago, including researches, debates, and monologue writing around the book. And I, was pretty much obsessed with the concept of “Existentialism” proposed by the composer of “No Exit”-Jeans Paul Satre. In the book, Satre depicted a room down in the hell, with one man and two women trapped. They are not able to escape from each other and with unavoidable to hurt each other.

“The hell is designed for the three, one man and two women. It brings a counterbalance position in between them. No one will be happy with other three. This is a sample model to have a existentialism hell. For Garcin, he will never sleep in hell, because the light is permanent on. The look from Inez will always follow him, because he or she can not leave the room…

…This is a completely contradiction to the free choice of Sartre’s existentialism. Individual self-consciousness precedes everything is the core proclaim from Sartre-“Existence precedes Essence.” The famous quote expresses the individual consciousness shall determine the essence of himself, including whether he is a coward or not.” (excerpts from my paper: “The Hell of Existentialism”)

However, the “Room“, is a architectural figure to be used by Satre, in order to built a atmosphere and tension in his book. For my self, now a big fan of existentialism. Prefer to use architectural language to express and discuss about the conceptual ideal in “No Exit”, and explore the possibility it brings to Art and philosophy.

Teen-Manage Decision Making and Critical Thinking

“If Our world was not ready for the pandemics, what can we do about it? How do we/our communities recover from pandemics?

This question is that guiding question push me forward in the IP project. Double H is about the health of human community, and we are trying figure out what we can do as nobody can keep out of this affair. People with same purpose gathered with their sense of mission. Teen-Manage is form by the people who want to solve online learning and online collaboration hardship. And toward the topic, we have generated several ideas to work it out.

Website of BBC news

今年新春期间,国内开展远程办公的企业超过1800万家,远程办公人员超过3亿人。公开资料显示,全国共有7亿多工作人口,这意味着,有着半数中国工作人口参与了这场远程办公体验。在美国,也已经有超过80%的企业引入了远程办公软件。这意味着,「远程办公」这种模式已经被企业的大多数员工体验过了。这样一场浩大的线上办公实验使这种模式的优势也显露了出来,

More than 18 million enterprises and more than 300 million people are working remotely in China this Spring. According to public records, there are more than 700 million working people nationwide, which means that half of China’s working population has participated in this telecommuting experience. In the United States, more than 80 percent of businesses have introduced telecommuting. This means that the “telecommuting” model has been experienced by most employees in the enterprise.Such a large online office experiment makes the advantages of this mode also revealed.

From researching online, we find out that millions of people already taking remote working online. Since 2020 March, people notice that the pandemic won’t be end in short period, or it just a beginning. Online working is a big trending before the pandemic, and the Covid-19 drag nations into this big experiment.

Many questions will jumped out after this: “If the remote working shows really successful, are going to work online after the pandemic?” or “What is pro and con of working online?”.

We took a estimate on the pandemic, the remote working will be a tide, that every organization should try out, whether you’re school, or company, or small group. This is the time to change the conservative mindset. We think this is a great opportunity to make some attempt on this.

The product that every team member want to reach is a platform that can help online collaborators works fluently. Everyone sense that their is not really much online collaboration tools that helps us to work, or in the other way, we want to build one that may solve the most cooperation difficulty.

Afterwards we generated our mission and vision:

通过高中生的视角参与迭代slashme(一个线上合作平台),使其对于青少年项目管理更友好。

Iterating Slashme (an online cooperation platform) from the perspective of high school students, to make it more youth project management friendly.

帮助异时异地的青少年团队展开高效线上合作。

Help teenagers in different places to carry out effective online cooperation.

As you can see, we’ve aware that the perspective of teenage is our merit, and this is the reason of naming ourselves: “Teen(ager)-Manage(ment)”

The strategy of solving a question is listed in the image below. We used the defend in the attack, which means we solve the problem with discovering, in sum, we improve the problem.

For clear cut the problem, we’ve started with ourselves, the issue that we have need to face every day. Because as the user of our product, We made the empathy maps for conjecture users mindset.

#用户痛点

  • 线上的「看不见感」会降低合作效率。因为看不到彼此,没有了社交压力,人们更容易分心去做其他事。
  • 缺少紧张的竞争环境,没有了同伴压力。
  • 缺少面对面团队氛围,没有了社群文化。
  • 青少年项目新手对于合作模式的变革需要适应的时间。
  • 看不到自己在项目中的成长路径
  • 长时间对着屏幕影响视力(家长十分关心)和身体健康。
  • 没办法强制见面,沟通有时间差,问题无法得到及时解决。
  • 网络一卡,错过一堆。
  • 像实验类需要真实场景的合作无法进行。

#用户爽点

  • 线上的「看不见感」允许合作者分心干点其他事儿。
  • 缺少紧张的竞争环境,没有了同伴压力。
  • 缺少面对面团队氛围,没有了社群文化,社恐人士的福音。
  • 家里学习环境好,有更大的独立空间,舒服。
  • 省去了路上的时间。
  • 在家里不会传染,很安全。

Bold represent the part we are going to give solution.

But the data from ourselves can not represent the group of teenager, we need to find and collect more effective data to move on the next step. So we have a range around MSA survey:

From the information that we have gathered in preamble, the most significant problem shows of the interaction during the meeting. Last two graph is about the platform tools using and the functions, the highest column of “the difficulty faced during the collaboration” is the less communication, this turn out to be to top of feedback we gave to Slash Me in after, and ” the mission of “Help teenagers in different places to carry out effective online cooperation.” is the describe of the problem. We wish that without the low efficiency meetings(voice calls). People are able to collaborate without straight “voice talking” to each other, but by using our tools, the feedback from each other can be delivered.

Thus, we interpret the information we’ve gathered, we noticed that the key to solve the problem is to make sure by using our tool, user can interact with each other in any necessary situation, without having a voice call, this turn out to be the most important job in our after project.

Since we have finished every preparation before doing something real, we sink in to a moment of “don’t know what to do”.

In the beginning of the project we were run for a product the created by our own, but soon we figure out we don’t have the ability to create a platform or a webpage, and this is not our strong side.

And then, I’ve participate the publish conference of Slash Me, A platform of collaboration introduced by Kate Yang in our IP project. I contacted with Fiona (one of founder of Slash Me), and explained the willingness of provide a perspective of teenager, the partnership between Teen Manage to Slash Me started that day.

The logo of slash me
link direct to it:
https://www.slashme.com/

After we’ve been familiar with Slash Me, we took several zoom meeting with the Fiona , we wrote our feedback sheet to them. In the document, we have mainly focus on the feedback and scenes that happened mostly in online collaboration.

We’ve summarized the often feedback people used in collaboration, and sort it into a specific functionality in Slash Me. We expect that have the proper feedback give to people on time, a team could collaborate with each other fluently

and we summarized the every necessary situations that happened in our daily collaboration routine, corresponded the interpretation we have in the previous text.

The document of feedback, already received by Slash Me

Recover the Design Club

Our exhibition sign for last semester

Since we’ve working epidemic, and the club purpose of leadership has changed. The One Up Design Group paused for working online. I assume there is some problem with myself and to assign a club online, I never did this kind of business before. I really want to recover the club to the atmosphere last semester, but it seems much harder during social distancing

The main issue I’ve to solve is, I do not know what design topic I want to work on, during the epidemic, and collaborate with people. To be honest, I was kind of listless with social distancing. Even though I was lack of motivation on design. I tried to think all night to generate an idea, a topic that everyone can works on.

Unfortunately, I did not come up with any idea, so the club was lied idle for long.

In order to make a plan out, I’ve used system thinking tools for a solution. I’ve discussed with my teammates first, and received few of feedbacks:

After the discussion, I moved towards more systematic analyze. The CLD(Casual Loop Diagram), which I’ve used at the previous post, to demonstrate the connections between the elements.

I started to draw the graph with two key elements: “Club closed” and “Club start to run”, trying to do some connections between them. While after I finished the graph. The point of the graph is the “Balancing Loop” in the middle. During that night, I was keep thinking about how I gonna come up with an idea, but more I think, more stress I obtained.

On the next step, I’ve used Mental Model to reflect my mental behavior how I interpret the observable experiences. Base on the ladder of Mental Model, climb from the current experience to the action I should take.

Before I started to write the post, I’ve already came out with a solution and taken the action. So I have a complete ladder, which shows a example of using this:

The ladder of Mental Model

By using the mental model, start from the base of the ladder, I have analyzed my interpretation to the “data”, and the assumptions I’ve made. In the Conclusion: My club mates do not have passion on the club, or they have no time to work on another task, the club. We’re stucked with no topic to go.

Now I looked into the conclusion I’ve made, noticed I created many wrong assumptions. People never know what they’re thinking if they do no reflect on their mental. I think the Mental Model is quite helpful for people having trouble and facing the problems.

The Iceberg – What’s under the China population?

Our Population in China is having the greatest number for a long time. 2019, China’s population is over 1.4 billion and with 0.39% rate of increase. the well-known birth control in the country is started in 70’s and rapidly lowered the fertility rate and the increase of population, but the crisis which will come after the overwhelming excess of population, the “Aging of China”. the prospects given by OPCS(Office of Population Census Surveys) shows that, if the country growing as still, the aging of China will be a problem lying in the front.


I’m a student from the course of system thinking, yet we decided to have a research under the iceberg under the data, and figure out why the population growth like these.

China total population over time(1978 to 2014)

Population
Birth rate
Resources: World Bank

we can see that the graph demonstrated the fertility rate shows that the climax of population in time is around 1965, having the rate of 6.385, and after that, the fertility rate went down to 2.5 during 1965 to 1995, a pick up of population is about 1980, and continue to fall to 1995, and shows a rate of rising gradually till present days.

Birth Control Policy (family Planning/One Child Policy)

By researching that the story behind the decreasing came after the climax is the birth control policy appeared in China. Yanchu Ma proposed a article about arguing the population in the country and the idea of birth control in 1957. 1962, a serious protocol of the Central Committee and the State Council. Until the 1964, which year the Family Planning Committee was formed, and the policy started to operate at the very first time. At that time, 1/5 of village down the country side were forced to running the new policy. And that is exactly the reason that we see the decreasing of fertility rate.

After the policy was built, the strength of the control became more and more harsh. In 1973, Family Planning was already counted as a national policy, and claimed that a pair can only have two child, having one child is the best. In 1980, the control of policy’s requirement down to one child per pair, which is as known as the One Child Policy.

This explained that the fertility rate’s decreasing in the graph: it once stopped at 1980, around 2.5 birth rate, which is close to the limits of 2 child policy, and after that, 1 child policy published, population was declined again, almost reached the 1.5 line.

After the prominent work of the one child policy, government started to notice that if the country’s fertility rate keeping going down, the decreasing of new child will not be given the birth, and the country will face another huge problem, the aging of the country. the percentile of 65+ population will take more portion in the population, they need retirement, require for caring. The working power with no new blood boost in, the entire country will enter a old age.

So, One Child Policy is not a long term project, once the fertility got controlled, government need to open the policy for family planning. around 2010, 1.2 Child policy published, and then 1.5(1.5 means if one of the pairs is from a one child family, the family can have 2 children)

Finally, in January, 1 2016, the universal two-child policy published, and ended the two score and 1 decade birth control period, but the controversial policy in the China is no longer is still exist, people are still waiting for maybe the “three-child policy” or no policy for birth control.

Today is April in 2020, as the previous mentioned, the prediction of 2055 in China, the population is still a big problem. Even though for now the increasing rate seems fine, China still have 0.39% population growing. But in the perspective from the long term trending, the increasing will no longer be it. If China, a colossus with 1.4 billion population, started to losing the fertility rate really quickly, then the aged group in the population will stand in a very dangerous position in the way.

Let’s say that if we can analyze the country and government a system, figure out the principle behind it, then we shall predict what will happen in the future

CLD (Casual Loop Diagram)

balancing loop

Balancing feedback loop is a condition of feedback loop when the “direction” of the interaction between different elements are opposite.
When one of the elements in a balancing feedback loop changes, for a response, the other element will change more. However, this increase of change will cause a decrease of change on the initial element.
At a word, when element A in a reinforcing feedback loop increases/decreases, the other element B will also increase/decrease. However, this change will make A decrease/increase. The system finds its balance in the fluctuation listed above. —- DIY Definition by system thinking students

The balancing loop is the tools using to modeling the appearance during 1965 to 2016. as the definition of balancing loop, an element in a system, will be balanced by a mechanics in the loop. if the element get over the predicting value, or lower than, the balancing loop will try to balance the value to the most suitable one.

so every time the population increased or decreased, the birth control(by the government) will balance the increase or decrease to normal. For instance, in 1965, overwhelmed population and the striking number of 6.3 of birth rate made the Chinese government realized that the population will destroy the country if it keep increasing without intervene, then the family planning kicked in, balanced the population quickly.

Delay

But in the title of analyzing the population in a country, China spent 15 years to restrain the increasing population(from 1964 to 1980), this is a delay in the system. Delay in population control is nonnegligible. the policy will not remove thousand of population instantly, but for decades. A full-fledged policy need time left to test it. For birth controlling, 5 decades over, the aging of population still exist, this is the hardest part for a long-delayed balancing loop, government need years to re-amend the policy.

delay

After those analyzes, we figure out how the government control the population. the system of balancing loop will keep adjust the input over time, until the population goes fine. And the delay in the system, is the biggest problem that makes the balancing tough to handle. Although the prediction made the aging of China, the balancing shall prevent it before happen.

Consider with more comprehensive analyze

But the elements we have include or considered is enough, for analyze the population, there are many factors that can influence the population. War, famine, policy, even being wealthy can impact on the population.

GDP (current US$)
fertility rate, total (birth per woman)

From observe the trending on the graphs, we can see the GDP of China is upgoing quickly since 2000, and in the contrast, the fertility rate is falling quick falling since 1960. In math, we can call two data group “negative correlation”. Which means, the growth of GDP will cause a edgrowth of fertility rate.

If we only consider the data from 1960 to 2018, the correlation can be defined as negative. However, the relationships between population and other factor can not be listed detailed right here, but the more factor you have, the more of your diagram’s accuracy will contained

sketch of a stock and flow diagram, I tried my best to include as much as elements here, even the Covid 19 😀

I think there is no way that somebody can run every elements that influence the population, nobody can. So to be much detailed is not the way out. Otherwise, people can tell the future.

Bring the big picture view of problem

To analyze the population, I pretty much sure that you’re not gonna success with list every possibility. Thus, why don’t we zoom out, and use a more universal tools?

Archetypes is the phenomenon that people observed and summarized from common systems. We can use the archetypes that apply to our system and use the common solution to describe it.

After viewed the archetypes, I decide to use “The Limits of Success/Growth” to describe the phenomenon of the population in a country.

Sample Limits to Success Behavior Over Time

The reason why I decide to use this diagram, is that from my observe of population, countries tend to approach to the a steady ratio of fertility rate at last. To understand the phenomenon of limits to the growth, we can look in to the example of it.

The example in the limits to the success is that a company that seal the fish started to collecting wealth in the beginning, they catch fishes from the ocean, and use the money of sealing the fish to expand their shipments. The scale of the company growth and growth until they reached the limits of success, they can’t get more fish from the ocean, because the total amount of fish can not satisfy them.

This can be apply to the country population as well. The total amount of resources on the mainland is limited, that could only support such amount of population to live. As long as the population reach the limit, the number will not increase anymore.

The Fertility Rate of Developed countries in Europe and United States

I apply the idea to the CLD sample of the archetype, then I have this:

The total amount of resources will supply the population in a country. In fact, the total resources is limited, so the population will finally started to be balance by the lack of resource.

There is an exception right here, that is the conversion rate of resources, or the utility ratio of power. People can only use their body effort to farm the land to get cereals. But as long as the invention of machines, locomotive steam machines, and the electricity. We can use less effort to generate more power. Revolution can bring population boom in a short period.

Back to the China: What can China government do?

The Leverage Action is the point that you can put the less effort in a system to exchange for the maximal change to the system. Just like an leverage. If we’re able to find the most efficient leverage point in the population system, then we simply solve the problem.

So the leverage action that the archetype of The limits of growth gave us the point below:

“This archetype is best addressed by mapping out the interactions of the growth loops, resource stocks, and potential limiters to growth in the future before problems arise. In the case of overfishing, this may include slowing down growth in the short term in order for fishing stocks to recover. Or in the case of an economy’s dependence on oil, the solution may be to to decouple the limiting factor from the system itself by transitioning to alternative energy sources.”

(source from:https://systemsandus.com/archetypes/limits-to-growth/)

The Two way that archetypes lead the solution, is to stop the overusing the resource in the system, to let it to recover. If China is going to take the strategy, they should limit people from overmining the ores, fishing the fishes. This is the policy of all the developed country are doing. Slow down the exploit and prepare for the long term. I’m pretty sure the China government must planning on this.

And second strategy is to jump out of the factor that limit the system, or in the other way: do something revolutionary. We can discover a new field of resource to use, then the loop of limitation won’t limit us. New type of energy is still hot topic in scientific research. Clear energy, which can produce zero emissions, is the only way out to save a country

Stonehenge Analyzing

Form: Monument

Style: Old Ancient 3000 B.C.E.-2000 B.C.E built by ancient blue stone

Material: Bluestone(青石)

Technique:  科学家们做出了很多关于如何将这么大一块青石从远处的各地运输过来的。假设这些巨大的青石是从威尔士运输至此,而不是另一个学者猜测的通过冰川漂浮过来的。那么通过人力运输,只有可能通过在陆地上的移动来实现这一点。有一次尝试中,很难

1997年,有一个学者安排了个更加巨大的队伍,130组成的实验小组。将木头上涂上油脂。可是光靠这样还不行,为了移动这个40吨重的混凝土复制品,一些人在前面拉,才能勉强移动。但是他们不确定这是否就是移动青石去往25英里之外地点的方式。最后他们不得不使用现代技术。不过至少证明了这是一种可行的方式。

Content: 很多史前历史学家给出的猜测很多都是基于民间的超自然传说。比如梅林有一个巨人帮他建造了这样一个矩阵。石头是有魔法的,或者干脆就是魔鬼建筑的。

1640年,约翰·奥布里才对巨石阵做了第一次的科学测量。包括石头之间的距离,材质等等。约翰的解释是德鲁伊教的杰作,也认为这是个矩阵有着日历和天文的用途。

然后到1740年,建筑师约翰·伍德对巨石阵也做了一次考量,但是他却认为这是一个异教徒举办仪式的地方。

德鲁伊教的理论已经被正是不是正确的。德鲁伊的教会仪式一般都是在山中的树林之中进行,这样的平地更加适合进行“大地仪式”(Earth Ritual)

现代学者的论点更加多样化:

很多学者的论点为巨石阵是一个漫长的,仪式性的葬礼队伍的终点

现在的大多数解释都和仪式的功能沾边。基于在周边发现的很多埋葬墓穴和神圣的地点有关,大多的解释都倾向于葬礼/占星/精神象征意义

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theories_about_Stonehenge