In this module, we analyze the aging problem in China. We know that China’s population aging problem is becoming more and more serious, and serious population aging will cause labor shortage, the pressure of young people to care for the elderly increases, the total expenditure of basic endowment insurance increases, and it is difficult to see a doctor. So what’s causing the increase in population aging? I think there are three causes: 1. People’s life pressure increases, they can’t afford to have children (the birth rate decreases) 2. The medical level improves, the average life expectancy increases 3. There is no war, and society is harmonious.
From this picture, we can see that China’s birth rate has declined since 1963, and though it has recovered several times, it is still declining. The Chinese government issued the “two-child policy” in 2015, considering that many problems will occur due to the declining birth rate. However, this move did not have a great impact, and the birth rate is still very low. In the 1950s and 1960s, China’s population expanded. Each family had 5-6 children, but up to now, each family has only one child. The present phenomenon has nothing to do with life pressure. According to the survey, it’s almost 600000 yuan to raise a child. It’s not easy for ordinary families. So even if many families want children, they dare not, which leads to the “two-child policy” does not play a very important role.
This graph tells us the average life expectancy of the Chinese people in the past and the projections of the average life expectancy in the future. We can see that the average life expectancy of Chinese people is increasing, and the most important reasons for the increase are the progress of medical treatment and social stability. With the progress of science and technology, our medical level is also more and more powerful, many incurable diseases in the past have been continuously conquered. Now the whole world is advocating a community of Shared future for mankind. The relations between people of all countries have been sublimated, society has become harmonious and stable, and wars are rare. Those are the two things that make life expectancy bigger and bigger, and an increase in life expectancy means an increase in aging.
This CLD was made by me and my teammates，and there is a correlation between each element. We can see from the figure that the increase of aging will lead to a decrease in productivity and living standards, and even affect the development of the country. And then the main reasons for aging are the decline in birth rates and the liberation of minds.
This article is coming to an end, so I want to discuss why the increase in aging is so difficult to solve. I have read an article from De Dao, which said: with the development of China’s economic level is getting higher and higher, the division of labor is getting more and more developed, the system is getting more and more complex, and there are more and more factors restricting the fertility rate. It becomes a factor that is locked up by various factors in a complex system.
So, what can we do? When we cannot maintain the birth rate and thus control the aging population, we should direct the labor force to more efficient sectors. Because it’s hard to interfere with the total population, but we can interfere with the distribution of the population among different sectors.
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